black swanThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable (according to our knowledge) while we spend our time focusing on the known and the repeated (xxxii).

The title is derived from the belief that people did not believe black swans existed until they were discovered in Australia.  The author describes a black swan event as having the following characteristics:  1. it is quite rare since it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, 2. nothing in the past adumbrates its possibility, 3. we often concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact in an attempt to make it explainable and predictable.

Taleb asserts that almost every significant event in our world, from the rise of ideas and religions to historical events including aspects of our own personal lives is the result of black swans.  He argues against our reliance upon Gaussian bell-shaped certainty and encourages the reader to be aware of the exceptions.  Referencing Socrates he notes that the only true knowledge is knowledge of one’s own ignorance.  The acknowledgement of our lack of knowledge is in agreement with the emphasis of the Bible.  The Apostle Paul gave this wise advice,

Therefore let him who thinks he stands take heed that he does not fall.  (1 Corinthians 10:12)

You must be aware of the existence of black swans in your life.  You may not be able to plan for them but you can prepare for them.  Solomon reveals how to prepare for the uncertainties of life,

Trust in the LORD with all your heart and do not lean on your own understanding.  In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He will make your paths straight.  (Proverbs 3:5-6)

Do you know that you don’t know?  When you realize the reality of that truth it’s a great comfort to know that God is in control (Psalm 115:3).

Higgins, RickDr. Rick Higgins
Professor of Discipleship, Columbia International University