The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow, gives the following problem,

A bat and ball cost $1.10. The bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

For many people, their initial response is 10 cents – it is intuitive, appealing, but it is wrong. If the ball costs 10 cents then the total cost is $1.20. The correct answer is 5 cents.* He points out that we have two basic types of thinking:

System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.

System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations.

A healthy dose of humility can help us slow down and properly understand the past so we can correctly perceive the future. 1 Chronicles 12:32 described the the sons of Issachar as men who understood the times, with a knowledge of what Israel should do.

There is a way which seems right to a man, but its end is the way of death. (Proverbs 14:12)

*Algebraic solution: Let the bat equal (x + 1.00) and the ball equal x.

(x + 1.00) + x = 1.10
2x = .10
x = .05

RickAssociate Pastor – Discipleship.  The Church at LifePark

Professor of Discipleship, Columbia International University

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